MP: Conservative Performance Index- 2016

From Jamison Faught, of the Muskogee Politico.

I've developed a rating system to determine how Republican each state house and state senate district is. The formula is comprised of the three elements: Mitt Romney's percentage in the 2012 presidential election (federal-level), Mary Fallin's performance in the 2014 gubernatorial election (state-level), and Republican voter registration (local-level).

Have a look at each full list. I included which members are leaving office (not seeking reelection, defeated in primaries, or term limited), as well as which districts have general election races.

Then I'll post what I'm calling the Conservative Performance Index, where we'll examine each legislator's conservative score (an average of two different conservative rating systems) and compare it to their district's Republican rating.

House Districts 

Read the full report and the CR charts, at Muskogee Politico

At 70.6%, the most Republican district is HD61, which is comprised of the Panhandle and the far northwestern part of the state. The next three most Republican districts (HD67 - 69.7%, HD80 - 69.6%, HD69 - 69.1%) are all in south Tulsa and Broken Arrow, and #5 goes to HD41 at 68.7% (a gerrymandered district running from Enid to the edge of OKC).

The five least Republican districts are HD73 in  north Tulsa (10.0%), HD97 (17.0%) and HD99 (22.9%) in Oklahoma City, HD72 (29.3%) in north Tulsa, and 88 (31.5%) in Oklahoma City.

The average rating for all House seats is 51.9%. For Republican-held seats, it's 57.1%, and for Democrat-held seats the average is 40.4%.

The five most Republican seats held by Democrats are Wagoner County's HD12 at 54.9% (an open seat), HD8 (northeast) and HD85 (David Dank's old seat, the Democrats surprise special election win) at 53.9%, HD6 (northeast corner), and HD7 (far northeast corner).

The six least Republican seats held by Republicans are HD62 (41.8%) and HD64 (42.2%) in Lawton, Muskogee's HD14 and southeast Oklahoma's HD22 (43.4%), and Pontotoc County's HD25 and Sequoyah County's HD2 (45.4%).

 Senate Districts

Read the full report and the CR charts, at Muskogee Politico 

The most Republican district is again in far northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle - SD27 at 69.1%. Next are SD25 (67.3%) in south Tulsa, SD22 (66.2%) in northwest OKC, SD41 (65.0%) in the Edmond area, and SD33 (64.1%) in Broken Arrow.

The five least Republican districts are SD11 in  north Tulsa (17.7%), SD48 (18.3%) and SD46 (32.1%) in Oklahoma City, SD9 (38.2%) in Muskogee and Cherokee counties, and SD16 (40.1%) in Cleveland County.

The average rating for all Senate seats is 52.1%. For Republican-held seats, it's 55.3%, and for Democrat-held seats it's 38.3%.

The three most Republican seats held by Democrats are SD34 (the Brogdon/Brinkley seat, also a special election stunner) at 59.3%, SD1 (47.6%), and SD13 (46.6%).

The five least Republican seats held by Republicans are all in 'Little Dixie' -SD5 (41.1%), SD7 (41.3%), SD8 (41.4%), SD6 (44.3%), and SD4 (44.4%). I believe all five senators are the first Republicans ever elected in their seat.

Conservative Performance Compared to Constituent Demographics 

Following up on my Republican District Rating system, this post compares each legislator's conservative score to their district rating, to add up their Conservative Performance Index.

The conservative rating ('CR' in the spreadsheet) I used is an average of the American Conservative Union scores for Oklahoma legislators and the Oklahoma Constitution's Conservative Index. Using two sources broadens the perspective and scoring system.

Positive CPI scores indicate that the member's conservative voting outperforms their district. Negative scores show that the member is more liberal than the district.

Oklahoma House of Representatives 

Read the full report and the CPI charts, at Muskogee Politico 

In what might surprise some, the top performer is Democrat State Rep. Regina Goodwin. She represents HD73, in the heart of north Tulsa. Her district has the lowest Republican rating in the state at 10.0%. Her conservative rating is 53, giving her a CPI of +43.0. She is the only Democrat in the top 34 House scores.

The second highest CPI score is Rep. George Faught of HD14 at +38.1. Term-limited Rep. Sally Kern (HD84) is third with +36.1, and term-limited Rep. Paul Wesselhoft (HD54) is fourth with +34.4. Freshman Rep. Scooter Park (HD65) is fifth with a CPI of +33.3. Incoming House Speaker Charles McCall is sixth at +33.1.

The lowest Republicans are Rep. Casey Murdock (HD61) with -15.6, term-limited Rep. Doug Cox (HD5) with -5.5, Rep. Leslie Osborn (HD47) with -3.8, term-limited Speaker Jeff Hickman (HD58) with -3.0, and term-limited Rep. Marian Cooksey (HD39) with -2.7.

Six Republican and one Democrat have CPI scores above +30. 18 Republicans have a score between +20 and +30. The average Republican score is +14.8, and the average Democrat score is -4.4.

61 Republicans have positive CPI scores, while 9 Republicans have negative CPI scores. 12 Democrats rate in positive territory, while 19 are negative (including six below -20).

33 House members are leaving office due to term limits, not seeking reelection, or losing their primary election. The average CPI for those leaving office is +6.2 (+14.0 for Republicans and -6.4 for Democrats). For the members who are running for reelection or elected without opposition, the average CPI is +9.8 (+15.1 for Republicans and -3.2 for Democrats).

 Oklahoma Senate

Read the full report and the CPI charts, at Muskogee Politico 

SD5 Sen. Joseph Silk has far and away the best CPI score at +45.4. The next four are all Republicans - SD6's Josh Brecheen (+32.7), SD33's Nathan Dahm (+31.9), SD4's Mark Allen (+31.6), and SD14's Frank Simpson (+31.4).

12 Republicans have CPI scores of +20 or better. Only two Democrats have positive scores: Anastasia Pittman (SD48, +7.2) and J.J. Dossett (SD34, +0.7). The only Republicans with negative scores are Ron Sharp (SD17, -1.6) and Bryce Marlatt (SD27, -1.6).

The average Republican CPI score is +15.0, and the average Democrat CPI score is -8.0.

13 senators are leaving office due to term limits, not seeking reelection, or losing their primary election. The average CPI for those leaving office is +2.0 (+7.1 for Republicans and -14.8 for Democrats). For the members who are running for reelection or elected without opposition, the average CPI is +13.9 (+17.7 for Republicans and -4.6 for Democrats).